ISO-NE’s 21-day Forecast for New England’s Energy Supplies
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Summary:
The ISO developed the forecast in the wake of two weeks of extreme cold weather in December 2017 and January 2018. Cold weather drives heating demand for natural gas to levels that approach the capacity of the pipelines. Once the demand for heating and power generation exceed pipeline supply capacity, generators typically need to use alternate fuel or liquefied natural gas (LNG). During the 2017/2018 cold snap, the reliability of New England’s power system relied on generators fueled by oil stored in onsite tanks—but oil supplies ran low as the cold weather wore on, and some power plants were at risk of running out of fuel. In addition, gas-fired generators were reliant on stored LNG, which also was in short supply. The goal of the forecast is to provide early warning of potential energy shortfalls if the region’s power system is expected to run low on oil or other fuels, such as LNG, during periods when the region’s natural gas pipelines may be constrained. With up to three weeks’ notice, the report gives resource owners time to evaluate the status of their resource’s fuel supplies and to arrange for replenishment, as needed, or to reschedule maintenance in order to maximize availability. In conjunction with the development of the report, the ISO made revisions to Operating Procedure 21 — Energy Inventory Accounting and Actions During An Energy Emergency (OP-21), including an expanded survey of all New England generating facilities. The survey enhances ISO’s situational awareness of regional fuel supplies, replenishment strategies, and potential emissions limitations.
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